9:10 a.m. update: Snow continues to allege by a area. It has been reported in a good cube of Loudoun and tools of Montgomery counties. The sleet isn’t terribly complicated to start, and a heaviest should come after currently overall, yet a cold readings are going to assistance it be feathery and fervent to accumulate. Plan on highway conditions going downhill shortly after it begins.
Here’s a demeanour during HRRR unnatural radar for noon:
— JB (@jbrnr) February 21, 2015
8:30 a.m. update: Snow is discerning pulling into a area, and it appears it will keep using easterly sincerely fast. Snow should be into D.C. between 9 and 10 a.m. during this rate, substantially covering a whole segment by noon or so. Thanks to really cold temperatures, a initial flakes stick.
Snow relocating into western suburbs. Should allege easterly opposite a area sincerely quick. Instant adhering once it starts. pic.twitter.com/YdPCIQ6IKM
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) February 21, 2015
8:00 a.m. update: The National Weather Service extended a winter charge warning to a easterly overnight. It now includes all of Loudoun, Montgomery, and Howard counties as good as counties formerly underneath warning to a north and west. The warning area layer numbers start during 4-6 inches and boost to 6-8 inches during arise as seen in a NWS foresee map below. Fairly identical to ours (further down this post) in many spots.
TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A rather biased rating of a day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
2/10: Snow on a Saturday is good for us continue watchers. Otherwise, winter could finish and I’d be OK with it.
Today: Cloudy, sleet to wintry mix. Highs: Mid-20s to nearby 30.
Tonight: Wintry mix. Lows: Low-to-mid 30s.
Tomorrow: AM showers? Variably cloudy, breezy. Highs: Low-to-mid 40s.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
From 5:00 a.m.: Today’s foresee is a unpleasant one. Both as a forecaster and as anyone who has to understanding with it as partial of their weekend planning. The expansion is still rather capricious during this brief range. If we went into this charge complement yet a impassioned cold forward of time, it would arguably be extremely easier to figure out what was going to happen. It would substantially mostly be rain. Not a box here though. Snow lovers: we competence as good make something of this low chill, right?
Today (Saturday): There competence be see some early a.m. object (or a good morning as clouds hurl in?) to start a day. If so, thicker clouds shortly follow. Snow starts to allege into a area during a morning. Maybe as early as 8 a.m. west, yet apropos some-more expected by 10 a.m. even into D.C. Everyone should see some flakes by noon or so, and they competence be augmenting in power by afterwards as well.
Even as sleet arrives, it’s a bit wily as to a details. One thing is certain, wherever sleet falls transport is expected to deteriorate, potentially apropos treacherous, and presumably staying that approach for most or all of a event. It’s also expected there will be a cutoff opposite a region, between decent sleet accumulation and most obtuse sleet accumulation. The heaviest sleet — it could truly be complicated during times — substantially comes during a afternoon. It tries to final into a dusk before sleet mixes in and takes over.
There is both upside and downside intensity to a 2-5 in. foresee for most of a internal area (higher N/W, reduce S/E), as sleet can raise adult discerning in bursts and bursts can be fickle. Daytime temperatures arise especially in a mid-20s to nearby 30, yet tangible Saturday highs could start before to midnight in a low-to-mid 30s. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Snow changes to sleet from south to north during a evening. Best theory for now in D.C. is that a change occurs somewhere in a 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. range, give or take. Even as this changeover occurs, temperatures should be really delayed to rise, and roads are expected to be a disaster opposite a segment into a night. Ultimately, most of a area goes over to plain sleet after a duration of solidified rain, yet it competence even stay mostly solidified once you’re a bit north and west of a city.
Enough ice to means really sleazy conditions could also start in and around D.C. before a change to rain. Temperatures possibly stay solid overnight or somewhat rise. So, lows are flattering identical to late-night readings in a nearby 30 to mid-30s range. Confidence: Medium
For associated trade news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for a foresee by a weekend…
Tomorrow (Sunday): If you’re looking for a mangle from a impassioned cold, this is your day! The charge complement moves away, nonetheless a few showers competence insist early. Otherwise, we trend clearer, only substantially never entirely clear. Even partly pale competence be pulling it. Temperatures essay toward normalcy (mid-to-upper 40s these days), yet sleet container competence impede that tour a bit. Mainly low-to-mid 40s still seems safer than going all in on “warmth” for now. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Missed a cold wind? It’s entrance behind as another Arctic front passes by overnight. There could be a few sleet showers or a shout on this line, yet expected of extremely reduction seductiveness than before sleet shout events. Anyone who sees sleet could collect adult a powdering or so though. Lows drop to a mid-teens to low 20s opposite a area. Wind chills are substantially especially behind in a singular digits to nearby zero. Joy. Confidence: Medium-High
A LOOK AHEAD
On Monday, we take a brunt of a subsequent Arctic attack. The categorical good news with these cold Feb days is that they’ve been rather sunny, and a object is noticeably stronger this time of year than in January. Victories where we can get them! Highs competence onslaught for 20 in a suburbs while substantially streamer for a low-or-mid 20s downtown. Wind chills are low, apparently as usual. Confidence: Medium
Coming off lows in a singular digits and teens, it’s another cold one Tuesday. We should again see a lot of sun, and substantially reduction breeze than Monday. Afternoon readings are in a top 20s and low 30s. Comparatively balmy! Confidence: Medium
SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily comment of a intensity for during slightest 1 in. of sleet in a subsequent week, on a 0-10 scale.
9/10 (↑): Light to assuage sleet accumulation is a clever gamble currently before an icy brew into tonight.